CEME 2006 - Climate & Environmental Impact Modelling

As the impacts of climate and environmental change become increasingly apparent, the need to better understand the likely impact of these changes, as well as the relative effectiveness of potential mitigation strategies, is paramount. As these changes occur in the future under conditions that have not been experienced previously, we need to rely on models to make these assessments under considerable amounts of uncertainty. Consequently, it is essential to understand different modelling approaches, how relevant models are developed, what potential pitfalls are, how to deal with uncertainty, and how to best use models for assessing the impact of climate and environmental change and identify the most effective mitigation strategies. In order to equip course participants with the skills for achieving these outcomes, this course addresses the major steps in the development of environmental models, and how they are used for decision-making, with a particular emphasis on water quality and responding to potential climate change impacts. Topics to be covered include one or more of the following: model specification (types of models e.g. process-driven models, artificial neural networks, environmental processes, model complexity, model application), model calibration (different optimisation methods, including gradient methods and evolutionary algorithms), model validation (structural, replicative and predictive validity) and stochastic modelling (types of uncertainty, random variables, risk-based performance measures and reliability analysis, including Monte Carlo simulation), environmental decision-making (multi-objective trade-offs, multi-criteria decision analysis). These topics are explored through a project on managing dissolved oxygen and salinity in a river system under climate and population change.